LIVRES EN PRÉPARATION
Authors: Peeters, B.; Defraigne, J.-C.
Summary:
This book documents a recurring pattern of balance-of-payment (BOP) financial crises in semi-periphery economies, driven by large medium-term cycles in center countries. Building on the concepts of medium-term cycles and the center-periphery model, we first introduce the Industrial-Financial cycles of Center Leader economies (CLIF cycles). We then explain how these CLIF cycles trigger significant countercyclical financial inflows into semi-peripheral countries, eventually leading to BOP crises. Our analysis reveals two key insights: (i) a periodic pattern characterizing international financial flows between center and semi-peripheral economies since the 1970s, and (ii) the role of this pattern in precipitating BOP crises in semi-peripheral countries. Through a historical review, we demonstrate that the last three major waves of BOP crises in semi-peripheral countries (during the 1980s, 1994-2001, and 2008-2019) correspond with the upward and downward phases of the CLIF cycles.
By connecting these historical patterns, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics between center and semi-peripheral economies and the cyclical nature of financial crises. The analytical framework of this book is inspired from my thesis. It aims at offering valuable insights for policymakers, economists, and scholars interested in the interplay between global financial cycles and economic stability in semi-peripheral countries.
Authors: Peeters, B.; Defraigne, J.-C.
Title in English: History of Economic Globalization from the 19th Century to the Present
Summary:
This book takes a chronological approach to examine, through historical analysis, the major transformations of the global economy. Each chapter focuses on a specific period characterized by unique production conditions and geopolitical contexts. The book explores changes in international monetary systems, trade, major technological advancements, financial and commercial regulations, regional integrations, industrial policies, and social redistribution mechanisms, including inequalities. Additionally, the book delves into five specific themes, setting itself apart from other works that often focus solely on "purely economic" issues, neglecting the accompanying social and political dynamics.
The first theme addresses the significance of changes in productive forces, such as technological and demographic shifts, in the evolution of modern societies and the global economy. It highlights how these factors impact production, productivity, and resource allocation, playing a crucial role in social reconfigurations and wealth distribution. The theme is illustrated through various examples, including industrial revolutions, widespread technological innovations, and significant demographic changes.
The second theme explores the deep and complex relationships between the geopolitical context, particularly confrontations among major world powers, and the evolutions in global trade and finance. The analysis includes examples such as the Seven Years' War, the Napoleonic Wars, the rise of imperialism, the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, and the geopolitical-economic interactions during the Cold War.
The third theme examines the endogenous economic evolution of the leading power within a capitalist framework, referencing Wallerstein's schema that suggests the material bases of global economic and political hegemony lie in production, trade, and finance. The book traces this sequence through various historical instances, from the Dutch commercial dominance in the 16th century to the contemporary economic competition between the United States and China.
The fourth theme discusses the foundations and deterioration of social systems, emphasizing the struggle for social surplus and its connections with social movements, the global economy, geopolitical context, and world wars. The analysis includes the rise of bourgeoisie in Europe, the formation of the working class, and the development of social protection systems, highlighting the interplay between social classes and technological advancements.
The fifth and final theme addresses the importance of controlling intangible assets by central countries and the economic and political conditions of the semi-periphery relative to the center. It examines the historical evolution of European colonial expansion, the first and second modern globalizations, and the industrialization of semi-peripheral countries, leading to significant shifts in global economic dynamics.
In the concluding chapter, the book addresses three contemporary challenges: the growing rivalry between China and the United States, the ecological crisis, and social challenges such as rising inequalities and the erosion of redistribution systems. These challenges are analyzed within the context of previously discussed themes, providing insights into the complexities and interconnectedness of current global issues.
This book aims to connect frequently fragmented and isolated topics while updating established studies and facts through brilliant research on the global economy and social transformations. By focusing on the connections between seemingly disparate subjects, the project aspires to offer a more integrated and analytical view of the global economy and social evolution.
Language: French